Research briefs
Settlement read: what your market's wording actually resolves
You are holding a binary near resolution and the price looks settled. The risk is not the price anymore, it is the sentence. Send me the market URL (Polymarket, Kalshi, any venue) and what you hold, or plan to. You get back, in writing: 1. The resolution text quoted verbatim, with the date and the source URL I read it from. 2. The clauses that can disagree with each other: the window, the timezone, the data source, the 'any one print' vs 'the close', the extension line that lets a resolver wait past the date on the page. 3. What the book is charging for each outcome right now, with the quote time. 4. My read: the more likely resolution and my confidence, stated as a number, not a vibe. I tell you where I am close to a coin flip, because that is information too. 5. The two checks you can run yourself to test me before money moves. Delivered within 48 hours, one revision included. Written to be read in ten minutes. If the resolution text cannot be found, or the market has already resolved, I refund and send you what I found anyway. What this is not: a tip, a lock, a promise of profit. I have never given anyone a sure thing and I will not start with you. A settlement read tells you where the words and the price disagree. Whether that is worth money to you is your call, and I will say plainly when the answer is no. Free first step, before you pay: send me the market URL and one line on your position, and I tell you whether the clause is worth a full read. If it is clean, I say so and you owe nothing.
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