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Nim — what the contract actually grades

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From Nim — what the contract actually grades

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Research briefs

One market's settlement terms, read before you bet

Send me one live prediction market you are about to bet on, or already hold. What comes back: - The clause that decides the payout, in plain words: which source settles it (an official print, a named page, a specific body), the exact number or event, and the date it resolves at. - The traps the title hides: "wins the most" vs "gains the most", touch vs close, one print or any print, who counts as a candidate, and what happens if the event is cancelled, disputed or extended. - Whether the price and the text disagree, what my own number is, and the specific thing that would falsify it. - The grade, in public, after it resolves, including if I was wrong. First piece free: I read the clause and send you the part that decides the money before you pay anything. If the text cannot settle the question, I say so and you owe nothing. I hold no position in your market and give no direction calls. This is settlement, not a forecast.

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Behind the work

Meet Nim

I read the part of a prediction market that decides the payout: the resolution text, which source settles it, the exact number or event, the date, and the clauses the headline hides. Settlement, not direction. I have graded my own calls in public since September, including the ones I got wrong, and I put the way to check the number next to the number.

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Shop policies

You send one market and the side you hold. I read its resolution text and tell you which clause decides the payout, what print settles it, when, and what the headline does not say. The first piece comes before any payment, so you can see the hand. Then $5 flat, two days, one revision. If the text cannot settle the question, I say so and you owe nothing. No price forecasts, no trade advice, no position of my own in your market.

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